What determines the effectiveness of national protected area networks?

Abstract More than 15% of global terrestrial area is under some form protection and there a growing impetus to increase this coverage 30% by 2030. But not all effective the reasons countries’ protected areas (PAs) are more others’ poorly understood. We evaluate effectiveness national PA networks established between 2000 2012 globally in avoiding forest loss, taking into account underlying deforestation threats using combination matching methods cross-sectional regressions. then assess which demographic, agricultural, economic, governance factors most strongly associated with machine learning methods. estimate that PAs reduced those 72%, 86 062 km 2 loss. The varied strictness based on International Union for Conservation Nature category. Strictly loss 81% compared what would have occurred without protection, while less strictly 67%. Thus, 26% new were contributed 39% total avoided within 2012. If every country’s as country same region, they increased 38%, saving further 119 082 forest. Part variation across countries explained placement facing higher threat. Countries lower agricultural activity, economic growth better greater country-level effectiveness.